■EUR/USD drifts down as Greenback bids mix with ECB cut expectations.
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■ECB geared for a summer rate cut, but mismatched talking points muddy the waters.
EUR/USD eased back from 1.0880 on Monday as talking points from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials weighed on otherwise quiet market flows. Broader markets are keenly anxious for signs of a rate cut from the Fed, but central planners continue to force down expectations with a tricky inflation outlook hobbling the Fed’s options on rate moves.
Tuesday promises more of the same, with a raft of Fed officials due to provide speeches throughout the day, while European traders will be looking ahead to an appearance from the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. European Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures are due later in the week, with US Home Sales, PMIs, and Durable Goods Orders all due in the back half of the trading week.
Market expectations of an ECB rate cut are on the high side on Monday after the ECB’s Martins Kazaks declared that June would be a good time to begin cutting rates. The Euro is easing against firmer currencies as investors price in an increasing likelihood of a widening differential between the EUR and the USD.
EUR/USD technical outlook
EUR/USD has fallen back from last week’s peak near 1.0895, but it is still staunchly bullish in the near term. The pair holds above the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0826.
EUR/USD pushed into the bullish side of the 200-day EMA near the 1.0800 handle last week, but stalled progress could pull the pair back down to the last swing low near 1.0600.
EUR/USD hourly chart
EUR/USD daily chart
